Poker Hand Probabilities

Poker Hand Probabilities

You can refer to our poker hand ranking page to learn the makeup of successful poker hands, along with the odds of landing them.  The sections below outline the odds and probabilities of specific situations throughout the game.

Preflop Probabilities

Probabilites come into play as soon as the first cards are dealt.  You can gauge how your hand will play out from the get go when you know the odds of landing these hands preflop:

• Pocket rockets (AA): 0.45%
• Pocket pair : 5.9%
• Connecting cards: 15.7%
• Suited cards: 23.5%

 

Probabilities at The Flop

With three cards in one fell swoop, the flop can be monumental.  Get familiar with these odds at the flop:

• Hitting a “3 of a kind” or quads while holding a pocket pair: 11.8%
• Making a flush while holding two suited cards: 0.84%
• Making a pair while holding unpaired pocket cards: 32.4%
• Probability of flopping a flush draw, holding 2 suited cards: 11%

 

Poker Hand Probabilities at the Turn and the River

The turn and river deliver your two last shots at redemption.  If you are still in the game, you’ll want to know your prospects.  Check out these probabilities:

• Hitting a gutshot draw on the turn or river: 16.5%
• Hitting an open-ended straight draw on the turn or river: 31.5%
• Hitting a backdoor flush, holding 2 suited cards: 4.2%
• Hitting a flush on the turn: 19.1%
• Hitting a flush on the river: 19.6%
• Hitting a straight on the turn: 17%
• Hitting a straight on the river: 17.4%
• Hitting a flush draw on the turn/river and needing one card to hit: 35%

 

Hand Against Hand Probabilities:

A great hand can only get you so far.  You need to know how you stack up against your opponents.   These probabilities let you know where your hand stands:

• Non-suited overcards beating a lower pocket pair:  45%
• Dominated hand winning (e.g. AJ vs. AK): 24%
• Lower pocket pair beating a higher pocket pair:  18.5%
• Suited overcards beating a lower pocket pair:  47.3%
• Unsuited severely dominated hand winning (e.g.  AA vs. ATo) 7.2%
• Severely dominated hand that is suited winning (e.g. AA vs. ATs) 12.7%
• 2 unsuited, non-connecting undercards beating 2 suited, connecting overcards (e.g. T4o vs. AKs) 32.4%
• 2 suited undercards beating 2 unsuited overcards (e.g. JTs vs. AK) 41%
• 2 unsuited undercards beating 2 unsuited overcards (e.g. JT vs. AK) 36.7%